Revealed: Why there is a 1 in 48,000 chance of the earth being wiped out by Apophis

Jan 29 2012 by Andy Richards, Sunday Mercury

THE bad news: it weighs 20 million tons and is hurtling through space at 23,000 miles an hour on a possible collision course with Earth.

The good news: NASA has 25 years to stop it.

Skywatchers have called it Apophis, although it has been dubbed the “doomsday asteroid” or the “continent killer.”

Taking its name from an ancient Egyptian demon, it’s reckoned to be a 250m (820ft) wide chunk of rock, ice and dust, pockmarked with craters and it could hit us, with catastrophic consequences, in 25 years’ time.

On Easter Sunday 2036, to be precise. Experts suggest there are two possible scenarios. Before then, Apophis will first fly by the Earth in 2029, coming perilously close enough to wipe out satellites in orbit. There’s just a chance that it’ll be the last we see of the asteroid, averting the crisis.

But don’t hold your breath.

The first date for your diary is April 13, 2029, and experts say the intruder will come within 18,000 miles of us, appearing to the naked eye as a bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky.

Trouble is, the close encounter with the Earth’s gravity may substantially alter Apophis’ orbit, with current predictions suggesting the space rock could then end up on a collision course.

And April 13, 2036 would then be D-Day. Disaster Day. Latest odds are that there’s a one in 48,000 chance of that happening.

Before you shrug your shoulders and relax, consider that there’s a one in 79,000 chance you could be hit by lightning. And the odds of being killed by a flood or earthquake are far higher, at around one in 120,000.

Former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart has asked NASA to investigate the risk, asking if a radio transponder can somehow be placed on the asteroid to better predict the danger.

And danger could be an understatement. Apophis could make a beeline for planet Earth, with deep impact on Easter Sunday, 2036.

If that happens, then all hell breaks loose.

This sort of impact has happened before. It is widely believed that such an impact by an asteroid was responsible for changing the Earth in such a way that the dinosaurs became extinct.